This Saturday, Fine Gael leader and current Tánaiste Leo Varadkar will once again become Taoiseach, taking the reins from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin who has been in post since June 2020. The arrangement, brought about by the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green coalition, sees the role of Taoiseach rotate between the coalition’s two largest partners half way through its term.
Can we expect much change?
While it is clear that Varadkar will become Taoiseach and Martin will take the Tánaiste role, the future of other key cabinet positions remains up in the air. Talks on the reshuffle have now begun between the leaders. Aside from the confirmation that current Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe and Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath will swap roles, given their strong working relationship over the past two and a half years, no other roles are yet confirmed.
Following a special Dáil sitting on Saturday to rubber stamp Varadkar, the reshuffle will begin. Alongside the Tánaiste role, it is believed that Martin has his eyes on the Foreign Affairs portfolio, which would shunt Simon Coveney out of the job. In a recent interview with the Irish Independent, Varadkar declared that Coveney would “absolutely” retain a cabinet role. This will potentially lead to Coveney taking up his leader’s former post as Enterprise Minister, leaving him to begin implementing the new Enterprise White Paper launched this month as well as navigating challenges like foreign direct investment dependency and tech job losses.
However, as Irish Independent Ireland editor Fionnán Sheahan writes, “a shortage of major change is on the cards – stability is the order of the day.” Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is now expected to stay in his position, given a recent stronger performance in the role. Leaders will also be conscious of upsetting a delicate gender balance, with only four female senior ministers in the Government. The smallest party within the coalition, the Greens, are also expected to be immune to the reshuffle and all their ministers will likely keep their current portfolios.
What’s been achieved and what’s to come?
Micheál Martin has navigated Covid, Brexit, war in Europe, the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, and a housing crisis that just won’t go away for successive governments. Under his leadership, however, the Government has moved to amend electoral law and establish a new Electoral Commission; introduced gender pay gap monitoring and reporting; banned ticket touting; introduced a bill to regulate gambling; and committed half a billion euros to cross-border, all island projects through his Shared Island Initiative.
With Varadkar back at the helm, it is likely there will not be any major change in the Government’s agenda. Focus will remain on areas like health, housing, and the cost-of-living crisis. As we move into 2023, calls for a general election from Sinn Féin in particular will continue to grow. Varadkar’s biggest priorities in the early months of next year, however, will be stamping his authority on the Government, maintaining a grip on his party and backbenchers, and quelling the threat of the opposition.