4pm, Friday 28 October: Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris MP has confirmed that he intends to call an Assembly Election following the passing of the deadline to restore the Assembly and Executive. The SoS did not set a date but said he will be giving a further update next week.
8am, Friday 28 October: The deadline for the restoration of the Assembly and Executive passed at 00.01 this morning. The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Chris Heaton-Harris MP is now obliged to call an election which must take place within 12 weeks.
This comes six months on from May’s Assembly Election. The Assembly and Executive has remained in cold storage since then due to the DUP’s position on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Several attempts to recall the Assembly and elect a Speaker and deputy Speaker have failed in that time, the most recent being yesterday, when bids to gain cross-community support for the election of a Speaker and nomination of a First and deputy First Minister failed.
Following the deadline, the remaining caretaker Ministers are no longer in position. Power has now shifted to the Secretary of State and civil servants, who will oversee the running of day-to-day matters.
What can we expect?
· The earliest an election can happen is Thursday 8 December and latest Thursday 19 January. With the Northern Ireland Office keen to avoid a Christmas campaign, it looks likely to take place on 15 December.
· The Electoral Office is making plans for this, and the cost will be £6.5 million.
· If an election takes place on 15 December, the count will happen that weekend. The Assembly would be expected to meet shortly after that to appoint a new speaker and ministers.
· In the event of another six-month period without the restoration of the Executive, the law stipulates that a further election must be called.
· In the interim, the Secretary of State has indicated that he will pass a budget for Northern Ireland at Westminster “concurrently” with elections and give civil servants at Stormont powers to take decisions in the absence of ministers.
· The idea of ‘Joint Authority’ between the Irish and British Governments in the governance of Northern Ireland without an Executive has also been mooted in recent days. All parties except the DUP, UUP and TUV welcomed it, however the Northern Ireland Office later ruled it out and said “joint authority is not being considered”.
What does it mean?
· We are on course for another election, yet the restoration of the Executive after that is not a foregone conclusion. It is unknown whether this further poll will change things given that the NI Protocol Bill and negotiations with the EU are now directly linked to restoring power-sharing.
· Alongside the potential for a second Assembly Election before we see out the year, campaigns will also reignite early next year for the Local Government Elections on 4 May 2023.