General Election Special
The General Election takes place tomorrow Thursday 12 December.
Polling stations are open from 7am to 10pm.
The total eligible electorate in Northern Ireland is 1,293,971. This is an increase of 51,273 voters on the previous General Election.
Counting will begin straight away and will continue overnight.
The first declaration is expected at around 1am. Key seats including Foyle is expected at 2.30am. South and North Belfast are expected after 3am. The Fermanagh and South Tyrone declaration is expected to be the last at around 4am.
BBC Northern Ireland election coverage will begin at 9.55pm with Mark Carruthers and Tara Mills presenting throughout the night. They will be joined by Mark Devenport, Mark Simpson and special guests including former Minister David Lidington, who will analyse the results as they come in.
Coverage of the results from across the UK can be viewed on BBC, ITV, Sky and Channel 4. Former speaker, John Bercow will analyse the results on Sky.
Parliament will return on Tuesday 17 December.
If the Conservatives win a majority, the Queen’s Speech will be presented on 19 December.
Northern Ireland
In 2017, five seats changed hands. Several new MPs are expected to be elected in Northern Ireland.
In North Down, the retirement of Lady Sylvia Hermon guarantees a new MP. The DUP’s Alex Easton was defeated by 1,208 votes in 2017. He is the favourite to win this seat but Alliance’s Deputy leader Stephen Farry cannot be discounted.
Carla Lockhart, the DUP MLA is expected to become the MP for Upper Bann. She will replace David Simpson who held the seat from 2005.
In North Belfast, Lord Mayor John Finucane is expected to closely challenge DUP Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds. In 2017, Dodds had a reduced majority of 2,081. This time, the SDLP, Green Party and Worker’s Party have stepped aside. Where these 3,062 votes and the 3,976 new voters go will decide this battle.
In South Belfast, it is widely expected that SDLP candidate, Claire Hanna will unseat the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly. In 2017, the DUP gained this seat from the former SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell with a majority of 1,996. Sinn Féin and the Green Party who won 7,640 votes in 2017 have both stepped aside and endorsed Claire Hanna.
In East Belfast, the DUP’s Gavin Robinson will have to hold off a strong Alliance challenge. Naomi Long, the party leader and MEP held the seat between 2010 – 2015, when she defeated Peter Robinson and is hopeful the Alliance surge which was apparent in the Local Government and European Elections will continue here. However, with a majority of 8,474, the DUP will be confident they can retain this seat.
In Foyle, Sinn Féin’s Elisha McCallion is expected to be unseated by SDLP leader Colum Eastwood. In 2017, following the death of Martin McGuinness she won the seat for the first time with a majority of 169 votes. 78% of the constituency voted to remain in the EU, this and the failure to restore devolution will be the key issues for voters.
In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew is predicted to retain her seat despite a strong challenge by the Ulster Unionist, Tom Elliott. This is always a tight seat and has been as close as four votes. In 2017, Gildernew regained the seat with a majority of 875 votes.
In South Antrim, the DUP’s Paul Girvan is facing a tough challenge from former UUP MP, Danny Kinahan and Alliance MLA, John Blair. In 2017, Girvan overturned a 959 seat majority to unseat Kinahan by 3,208 votes.
All other constituencies are expected to remain unchanged.
With talks on the restoration of devolution set to resume on Monday 16 December, the results from the 18 constituencies will have a significant bearing.
The overall performance of the parties including the relatively new Aontú, will give an indication of how a possible Assembly Election may play out in early 2020.
The rest of the UK
Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/3 that the Conservative Party will win an overall majority. They are offering odds of 5/2 on a hung parliament and 25/1 for a Labour majority.
The result of the 2019 exit poll will be announced at 10pm on Thursday night by Huw Edwards on BBC.
YouGov’s MRP model which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017, suggests that the Conservative Party will win a 28-seat majority with Labour losing 31 seats. However, due to the margin of error, a hung parliament cannot be ruled out.
If the Conservatives do win a majority, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will come under intense pressure to resign and this could see the party move closer to the centre-left again and/or select the first female leader.
In Scotland, the SNP are expected to increase their representation at Westminster. In 2017, they had a disappointing result and despite losing 21 MPs they returned with 35 MPs. They are predicted to regain most of these which will boost Nicola Sturgeon’s mandate for a second Independence Referendum.
Several high-profile MPs are in marginals and could lose their seats.
This includes Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Tactical voting combined with social trends could see Labour take the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson who regained the East Dunbartonshire seat in 2017 with a majority of 5,339 is under intense pressure from the SNP.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab may be unseated by the Lib Dems in the pro-EU constituency of Esher and Walton which he has held since 2010.
Former Northern Ireland Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers who has a majority of 353 votes is under severe pressure from Labour in Chipping Barnet.
The Beast of Bolsover, Dennis Skinner who has held the seat since 1970 for Labour could be unseated by strong leave sentiment in his Bolsover constituency.
The former Conservative leader, Iain Duncan Smith may also come under intense pressure due to tactical voting. In 2017 he had a majority of 2,438 but is set for a tough battle with popular labour candidate, Faiza Shaheen.
