Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 16 May 2021

Forward Look                                

  •  The 7th Northern Ireland Assembly will formally meet for the first time today to allow MLAs to sign in and elect a speaker. Proceedings will begin at noon.

  • The DUP have confirmed that today they will not support the election of a new Assembly speaker.

  • The SDLP is to form a “constructive opposition” and have until 23:59 tonight to nominate a replacement Infrastructure Minister. The party has stated that it will not do so. Therefore, through the d’Hondt process, Sinn Féin will be invited to nominate a replacement.

  • The State Opening of Parliament occurred on Tuesday which outlined the Government’s intention to introduce The Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy and Reconciliation) Bill and an Identity and Language (Northern Ireland) Bill. A full breakdown of proposed Bills can be viewed here: LINK

  • It is expected that the Government will unilaterally act to legislate to override aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol next week. It comes after Foreign Secretary Liz Truss MP formally rejected the EU’s proposals.

  • The Irish Times has reported that the US Administration is on the verge of appointing a Special Envoy to Northern Ireland to help overcome the current political stalemate.

  • The Northern Ireland Civil Service is to recruit for its first Chief Scientific and Technology Officer from today.

  • Alliance Councillor Michael Long has replaced Kate Nicholl as the Lord Mayor of Belfast after her election to the Assembly. Cllr Long’s tenure will last for three weeks ending on 30 May. 

  • The Department of Health has extended the consultation deadline on Minimum Unit Pricing. The new deadline is 27 May. The consultation can be viewed here: LINK

  • Belfast City Council is seeking views on its proposals to redevelop Cathedral Gardens. The deadline is 23 May. The consultation can be viewed here: LINK

  • Health Minister Robin Swann has extended the public consultation on Reform of Adult Social Care to 1 July. The consultation can be viewed here: LINK

  • The Department of Health is to hold virtual consultation events on the future of Urgent and Emergency care. Virtual events are to begin next week.

  • Southern Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn is to resign his post on 31 May to join EY as a consultant.

  • Former Secretary of State Julian Smith MP will speak at the Women in Business Chair’s Lunch on 15 June at the Culloden Estate and Spa.

Other Stories this week

  • Former DUP MLA and MP Emma Little Pengelly was appointed as DUP MLA for Lagan Valley replacing Party Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP.

  • Northern Ireland Minister Conor Burns MP has been appointed as the Prime Minister’s Representative to the US on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

  • In a letter to the Public Accounts Committee, new Belfast City Council Chief Executive, John Walsh has demanded further planning powers from Stormont.

  • M&S announced that it has seen a reduction in the shelf life of its products in Northern Ireland due to the requirements of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

  • Official figures from the Office of National Statistics have suggested that the UK may plunge into a recession.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 24 May, Belfast Telegraph Top 100 Northern Ireland Companies 2021

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 17 June, North West Business Awards, City Hotel Derry

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 24 June, NI Chamber’s Annual Lunch

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

  • 29 – 30 September, Centre for Cross Border Studies’ Annual Conference

  • 21 October, Belfast Chamber Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 4 – 5 November, Sinn Féin Ard Fheis

Consultations

Allstate NI unveils new office spaces and hybrid working policy amid recruitment drive for 100 technologists

Vice President and Managing Director of Allstate NI, John Healy

Northern Ireland’s largest IT employer, Allstate NI, has unveiled its approach to post-pandemic working, including a hybrid working policy and redesigned office spaces amid an ongoing recruitment drive for 100 positions.

The company, which announced in February that it will bring forward 100 new positions in 2022, is seeking applicants for roles right across the business, including in software development, cybersecurity, product management, data science, analytics, and full stack development. It will host a recruitment event on Thursday 12 May that can be attended both in person and online.

Named ‘Workplace of the Year’ at the Digital DNA Awards 2022, Allstate NI has designated all employees as hybrid and made flexible hours available to everyone, allowing staff to work remotely or in the office at any time to find a balance that suits their work and personal life.

With 95% of staff voicing a desire for more flexibility, most have opted not to take on a set schedule, instead working with their line manager to find a pattern that suits their lifestyle and the needs of the business.

The technology giant, which opened its state-of-the-art Belfast office in 2018, has invested in office redesigns across all locations to create collaborative working areas with social spaces and gaming stations built in.

Employees can book a desk at any of the three sites in Belfast, L’Derry and Strabane. All staff can also request a flexible working pattern such as part-time hours, condensed hours or staggered hours from day one of their employment.

The recruitment drive comes after Allstate NI was named Workplace of the Year by Digital DNA, an award that recognises technology companies which put employees at the core of all policies and strategies. 

Further information on current vacancies at Allstate NI is available here. Registration for the recruitment day can be found here.

Vice President and Managing Director of Allstate NI John Healy said:

“Productivity can be achieved anywhere, and greater flexibility in how, when and where we work is an important principle. We are empowering every employee to design a working pattern that suits their needs and the requirements of their team while promoting a healthy work-life balance.”

“With 100 roles currently on offer, we are thrilled to have opened new modern and dynamic workspaces that will foster more collaboration, innovation and socialisation when employees are in the office. This is an exciting time for Allstate NI, and we hope to see many more individuals join us in this new phase.”

Trainee Management Scheme for leisure industry launches in Belfast

The award-winning Graduate Trainee Management Scheme run by GLL, the social enterprise which operates the network of ‘Better’ leisure centres, has launched in Belfast. 

Following a two-year hiatus due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the fast-track scheme has returned to recruit and train the city’s senior leisure centre managers of the future.

Successful applicants will be added to GLL’s two-year management development programme, during which they will work across all areas of the business from human resources and marketing to lifeguard and fitness instructor training.

Employees on the scheme will be mentored by senior colleagues as they work towards key qualifications for a career in the leisure industry, including:

·        Gym Instructors Level 2

·        RLSS National Pool Lifeguard

·        STA Award in Teaching Swimming

External applicants to the scheme will be welcomed by GLL, which operates 15 leisure centres and delivers leisure services to over 20,000 pre-paid monthly members across the city.

Applicants without experience in leisure require a degree or equivalent level qualification, while internal applicants without a degree that possess solid industry experience will also be considered.

Salaries for the positions range from £21,950 - £27,787. Following a candidate selection process throughout the Spring, successful applicants will take up their positions in August and September.

Previous alumni from the scheme include Michael Kearney, GLL’s Project Manager of the Leisure Transformation Programme in Belfast. Michael joined the fast-track programme in 2015 after working as a casual lifeguard in Andersonstown Leisure Centre. He has since held multiple General Manager positions at centres across the city and now leads on the rollout of the £105 million Leisure Transformation Programme, which includes the current redevelopment of Templemore Baths.

 Project Manager at GLL Michael Kearney said:

“I joined the Graduate Trainee Management Scheme after working in my local leisure centre in Andersonstown while at university. Initially employed as a casual lifeguard, a role I was inspired to pursue by both of my parents who worked there, I was thrilled to find a scheme where I could continue to work within my local community while gaining valuable qualifications and experience.”

“Through continued access to senior colleagues, I left the programme with a great foundation in the skills and attributes required for a management career in leisure and the values and vision of GLL as a charitable social enterprise. I have no doubt that this kickstarted my career and helped me find a role that continues to reward me today.”

GLL Project Manager Michael Kearney

 People Business Partner at GLL in Belfast Lynne Savage said:

“The Graduate Trainee Management Scheme is designed to provide an understanding of the different roles within leisure by giving hands-on experience across a range of duties. After a two-year hiatus, we are delighted to relaunch this flagship programme once again to provide more individuals with a gateway into the industry.”

 As an employer of over 500 individuals in Belfast, we know that the talent and reliability of local people is unrivalled and are pleased to be delivering these new roles for the economy.”

Further information on the GLL Trainee Management Scheme can be found here. Applications close on Monday 16 May.

Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022 - Brown O'Connor Communications Update

The count of the Assembly Election 2022 has now completed with all 90 seats declared.

The official make-up of the 7th Northern Ireland Assembly is as follows; Sinn Féin has become Northern Ireland’s largest party with 27 seats. The DUP remain the largest Unionist party with 25 seats. The Alliance ‘surge’ became realised with the party now sitting on 17 seats. The UUP return with nine seats while the SDLP suffered a blow and had its seat share reduced from 12 to eight seats. The TUV and People Before Profit both have one seat each and two Independent Unionists have also been elected.

  • The Alliance Party has made the most gains with 10 new seats in Belfast North, Belfast South, North Down, South Down, East Antrim, North Antrim, Lagan Valley, Upper Bann and Strangford.

  • In an interview with BBC’s Mark Carruthers, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said that the DUP party officers will decide if he takes the MLA seat in Lagan Valley or continues to sit as an MP, with the decision to be made ‘early next week’.

  • SDLP deputy Leader and Infrastructure Minister, Nichola Mallon was excluded from North Belfast, losing her seat to Alliance Councillor and former Lord Mayor of Belfast, Nuala McAllister. If a new Executive is not formed in the next week, the SDLP will have to nominate a new caretaker Infrastructure Minister from their elected MLAs.

  • The Green Party has lost both of its seats and has returned no MLAs to the Assembly including its leader, Clare Bailey in Belfast South. This is the first time the party has had no MLAs since 2007.

  • Sinn Féin has returned every seat the party had held in the previous 2017-2022 mandate.

  • Belfast Lord Mayor, Kate Nicholl has been elected to Belfast South. Following signing in as MLA, Ms Nicholl will resign as Lord Mayor and will be replaced for the final weeks of the term, due to end at the beginning of June, by a fellow Alliance councillor. Possible options include Cllr Michael Long of Lisnasharragh DEA, Cllr Michelle Guy of Titanic DEA or Cllr Emmet McDonough-Brown of Botanic DEA.

  • DUP stalwart, Mervyn Storey, who has been an MLA since 2003, has lost his seat in North Antrim to the Alliance’s Patricia O’Lynn who becomes the constituency’s first female MLA.

  • 17 of the successful candidates are new to the Assembly being first time elected MLAs. A number of these candidates will be leaving their former elected roles at local councils which will see co-options across eight councils including Belfast City, Derry City and Strabane, Causeway Coast and Glens, Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon, Antrim and Newtownabbey, Ards and North Down, Lisburn and Castlereagh and Mid and East Antrim.

  • The newly elected candidates will be invited to the Assembly to meet on Monday to sign the register and elect a new Speaker. The parties then have seven days to form an Executive. If an Executive is not formed, under the new NI (Ministers, Elections and Petitions of Concern) Act, the Assembly will continue to function and current Ministers could remain in post for up to six months as negotiations take place.

  • In a statement yesterday, Secretary of State for NI, Brandon Lewis MP stated he will meet with the party leaders ‘over the coming days’ and encourage them to restore the Executive.

Electorate Turnout and full list of Seats Declared – Sunday 8 May

Belfast East – 62.52%

  • Naomi Long (Alliance)

  • Joanne Bunting (DUP)

  • Peter McReynolds (Alliance)

  • David Brooks (DUP)

  • Andy Allen (UUP)

Belfast South – 64.36%

  • Deirdre Hargey (SF)

  • Edwin Poots (DUP)

  • Matthew O’Toole (SDLP)

  • Paula Bradshaw (Alliance)

  • Kate Nicholl (Alliance)

Belfast West – 64.66%

  • Danny Baker (SF)

  • Órlaithí Flynn (SF)

  • Aisling Reilly (SF)

  • Pat Sheehan (SF)

  • Gerry Carroll (PBP)

Belfast North – 61.47%

  • Gerry Kelly (SF)

  • Carál Ní Chuilín (SF)

  • Philip Brett (DUP)

  • Brian Kingston (DUP)

  • Nuala McAllister (Alliance)

East Antrim – 60.11%

  • John Stewart (UUP)

  • Gordon Lyons (DUP)

  • Danny Donnelly (Alliance)

  • Stewart Dickson (Alliance)

  • David Hilditch (DUP)

East Londonderry – 61.40%

  • Maurice Bradley (DUP)

  • Alan Robinson (DUP)

  • Caoimhe Archibald (SF)

  • Claire Sugden (IND)

  • Cara Hunter (SDLP)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone – 69.09%

  • Jemma Dolan (SF)

  • Tom Elliott (UUP)

  • Colm Gildernew (SF)

  • Aine Murphy (SF)

  • Deborah Erskine (DUP)

Foyle – 61.64%

  • Pádraig Delargy (SF)

  • Mark H Durkan (SDLP)

  • Ciara Ferguson (SF)

  • Sinead McLaughlin (SDLP)

  • Gary Middleton (DUP)

Lagan Valley – 63.19%

  • Sir Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP)

  • Robbie Butler (UUP)

  • Paul Givan (DUP)

  • Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance)

  • David Honeyford (Alliance)

Mid Ulster – 69.54%

  • Michelle O’Neill (SF)

  • Linda Dillon (SF)

  • Emma Sheerin (SF)

  • Keith Buchanan (DUP)

  • Patsy McGlone (SDLP)

Newry and Armagh – 68.49%

  • Conor Murphy (SF)

  • Cathal Boylan (SF)

  • Justin McNulty (SDLP)

  • Liz Kimmins (SF)

  • William Irwin (DUP)

North Antrim – 62.51%

  • Robin Swann (UUP)

  • Philip McGuigan (SF)

  • Jim Allister (TUV)

  • Paul Frew (DUP)

  • Patricia O’Lynn (Alliance)

North Down – 60.13%

  • Alex Easton (IND)

  • Andrew Muir (Alliance)

  • Stephen Dunne (DUP)

  • Alan Chambers (UUP)

  • Connie Egan (Alliance)

South Antrim – 60.03%

  • Declan Kearney (SF)

  • John Blair (Alliance)

  • Steve Aiken (UUP)

  • Pam Cameron (DUP)

  • Trevor Clarke (DUP)

South Down - 66.19%

  • Sinead Ennis (SF)

  • Cathy Mason (SF)

  • Patrick Brown (Alliance)

  • Diane Forsythe (DUP)

  • Colin McGrath (SDLP)

Strangford – 58.42%

  • Kellie Armstrong (Alliance)

  • Michelle McIlveen (DUP)

  • Harry Harvey (DUP)

  • Mike Nesbitt (UUP)

  • Nick Mattieson (Alliance)

Upper Bann – 62.48%

  • John O’Dowd (SF)

  • Johnathan Buckley (DUP)

  • Diane Dodds (DUP)

  • Doug Beattie (UUP)

  • Eoin Tennyson (Alliance)

 West Tyrone – 66.90%

  • Nicola Brogan (SF)

  • Thomas Buchanan (DUP)

  • Maoliosa McHugh (SF)

  • Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)

  • Declan McAleer (SF)

Brown O’Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 9 May 2022

Forward Look                                

  • Counting for the Northern Ireland Assembly election began today at 8am, with results expected to be announced throughout today and tomorrow. At 9pm last night, the overall voter turnout was 55.5%. Modelling indicates the final figure will be lower than in 2017, which was 64.78%.

  • The new Assembly will sit early next week where members must sign in and elect a new Speaker. They will also be given the opportunity to elect a new First and deputy First Minister.

  • DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said he will not enter the Stormont Executive until the Protocol has been resolved.

  • Northern Ireland Secretary of State Brandon Lewis MP said a proposed new law allowing the UK Government to waive elements of the Northern Ireland Protocol will not be in the Queen’s Speech on Tuesday.

  • Assistant Director at InterTradeIreland, Kerry Curran, will replace Aodhán Connolly as the Director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium on Monday.

  • The Department of Finance has launched a ‘Back in Business’ scheme, offering businesses a two-year 50% rate reduction if they move into premises previously used for retail.

  • A decision is set to be made today on whether investors will be involved in future plans for the George Best Hotel in Belfast City Centre.

  • The Republic’s former Education Minister and Fine Gael Donegal TD Joe McHugh announced he will not stand in the next Irish general election.

  • Research carried out by Grant Thornton and Belfast Chamber found that, at the current rate of development, Belfast risks falling short of its 2035 population target by 20,100.

  • 81.3% of NIPSA union members at the Northern Ireland Assembly have voted in favour of strike action. This will take place on Thursday.

  • A report published by the Standards Committee into All-Party Parliamentary Groups has suggested cutting down the 774 APPGs as they could be open to “improper access and influence”.

  • Manufacturing Month launched this week, with the Anchor High leadership summit taking place on Thursday.

 

Other Stories this week

  • Council elections took place across England, Scotland, and Wales on Thursday. Results are expected today.

  • A study by Queen’s University Belfast found that the Spend Local voucher scheme should have been targeted towards businesses which were forced to close.

  • Seven further DUP members left the party to give their support to South Down TUV candidate, Harold McKee before yesterday’s Assembly election.

  • The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 1% in response to the cost of living crisis.

  • Almac has received planning permission for its new £40 million manufacturing facility in Craigavon.

  • Public finances in Ireland were in deficit by €1.1 billion at the end of April.

 

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 24 May, Belfast Telegraph Top 100 Northern Ireland Companies 2021

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 17 June, North West Business Awards, City Hotel

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 24 June, NI Chamber’s Annual Lunch

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

  • 29 – 30 September, Centre for Cross Border Studies’ Annual Conference

  • 21 October, Belfast Chamber Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 4 – 5 November, Sinn Féin Ard Fheis

Consultations

New Executive vital to economic rebuild, says Manufacturing NI

(L-R) Tony Murray, Lockton Companies LLP; Laura Gillespie, Pinsent Masons; John Mathers, Barclays Bank; Stephen Kelly, Manufacturing NI; William Taylor, KPMG; and Mary Meehan, Manufacturing NI.

Manufacturing and business leaders from across Northern Ireland gathered this morning to officially kick off Manufacturing Month at a business breakfast in Belfast.

The event, hosted at KPMG’s offices at the Soloist Building in Belfast City Centre, was held to launch Manufacturing Month, an initiative to celebrate and cherish the local manufacturing and engineering sector in Northern Ireland.

First held in March 2020, Manufacturing Month will run through the entire month of May with a series of events, roundtables, factory tours, school visits, webinars, and the Anchor High leadership summit at the Galgorm. The Month is a chance to celebrate and highlight the innovation and ingenuity of Northern Ireland’s manufacturers, as well as cherishing the people who make the sector the leading industry that it is.

Panellists at this morning’s event focused on the manufacturing sector’s resilience during the Covid pandemic, the industry’s recovery and rebuild, how to manage challenges like labour shortages and the rising cost of doing business, and the importance of a new Executive being formed as soon as possible after Thursday’s Assembly Election.

The breakfast was held in partnership with Business Eye, chaired by editor Richard Buckley, with a panel including Mary Meehan, Deputy Chief Executive of Manufacturing NI, William Taylor, Strategy Director at KPMG, Laura Gillespie, Partner at Pinsent Masons, Tony Murray, Senior Vice President at Lockton Companies LLP, and John Mathers, Corporate Development Director at Barclays.

Manufacturing Month is sponsored by KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Invest NI, Lockton Companies LLP, Barclays, and supported by Northern Ireland’s six further education colleges.

(L-R) Stephen Kelly, Manufacturing NI; Mary Meehan, Manufacturing NI; William Taylor, KPMG; John Mathers, Barclays Bank; Laura Gillespie; and Tony Murray, Lockton Companies LLP.

Speaking at the breakfast, Manufacturing NI Chief Executive Stephen Kelly said:

“We’re thrilled to be launching Manufacturing Month once again. After the inaugural Manufacturing Month was cut short in March 2020 due to the arrival of Covid, this year is an opportunity to recognise the resilience of our makers over the past two years and highlight the skilled people, talented leaders, and world-class products that make our local sector the success story that it is.

“The Northern Ireland manufacturing sector has proven its resilience in recent times with the pandemic, Brexit, rapidly rising inflation, and supply chain difficulties. Despite these challenges, our manufacturers continue to bring in over £15bn for our local economy. Recent figures show that two thirds of firms here are growing again as we come out of the pandemic, a huge success and one to be proud of.

“Our companies provide secure and skilled jobs which support thousands of households across the country. Areas like Mid Ulster are world renowned clusters of manufacturing and employ thousands of skilled technicians and engineers. It’s crucial that following this week’s Assembly Election a fully functioning and committed Executive is formed, one which is focused wholly on recovering and rebuilding from the pandemic, creating new jobs, and securing investment which will transform our economy and our communities.

“Manufacturing Month is an exciting initiative which will shine a light on all that is good about our local industry, the people, the leaders, the products, and the innovation. The Month would not have been possible without the valued support of our sponsors, KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Lockton Companies LLP, Invest NI, and Barclays, and the support of the six local further education colleges. To have the backing of such prominent and leading organisations proves the strength of our local manufacturing industry.”

'Manufacturing Month opportunity to cherish sector' writes Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI

As originally appeared in the Irish News, 3 May

Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI

“We don’t make anything anymore”.  We’ve all heard it, some of you have probably said it.

Admittedly the days of the industrial revolution, where tens of thousands walked through a single set of gates to the sound of the factory horn, making boats and ropes and linen and shirts seem long gone, but they have been replaced with innovative, agile, and no less world-renowned manufacturers in every community and in election week constituency in Northern Ireland.

Covid changed a lot and also proved a lot.  We may have seen much of our capability move east but what our incredible manufacturing leaders have created in its wake has proven to be resilient, creative, and critical. Whether it’s our food producers or our engineers or those who pivoted to meet the emergency on our health front line, the importance of having our own domestic production base has never been clearer.

With the complications of Brexit, supply chain challenges, rapid inflation, and an increasingly acute lack of labour, there’s no doubt that the 2020s has already seen the most extraordinarily difficult time to be in a manufacturing business. Yet, despite all that has been thrown at them, the local sector has never been more upbeat.  Our surveying published last week shows that two thirds of firms are reporting themselves as growing compared to 41% in July 2020 as we exited the first Covid lockdown.

Bringing in almost £15bn of external income, more than what Treasury passes back to the Executive to run public services, means that we really don’t have an NI economy if it weren’t for of manufacturers. Which is why it is important that 39% say they have increasing sales in the EU and 40% increasing sales in GB.

And in employment, local firms are returning or creating jobs four times faster than their counterparts in Britain. Nothing seems capable of stopping the march of our makers.

That is why we have designated May 2022 as Manufacturing Month, to cherish and celebrate those in great businesses, populated by great people, and are making great products enjoyed in markets at home and abroad.

Blue chips like KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Lockton, and Barclays, as well as public sector partners Invest NI and the Further Education Colleges, recognise the contribution being made economically and socially by the sector which is why they’re supporting Manufacturing Month. 

The Department for the Economy recognises it by picking out Advanced Manufacturing as an opportunity in its 10x Strategy. The Department of Finance has singled out the need to buy more locally to ensure supply chain resilience whilst rebuilding our economy.

Our firms demonstrate every day that they are capable of running towards and quickly tackling problems.  Imagine the impact they would have in our cities, towns, and townlands if the right environment was created for them to be successful. 

Post-election, we quickly need a Programme for Government, budget, and our Executive back taking local decisions for local people.  We need the UK and the EU to provide the stability, certainty, simplicity, and affordability through agreement on our post-Brexit trading environment.

But most importantly, we need to celebrate, if only just for the month of May, the people who make our food and the table it rests upon, those who bring us our machines and motorway bridges, those who put the wings on the planes for our holiday flights, and those who are providing pharmaceuticals and the PPE to protect our nurses.

#AE22 Brown O’Connor NI Assembly Election Manifestos

Ahead of polling day in Northern Ireland in less than 48 hours, each party has now published their Election Manifestos outlining their vision for Northern Ireland over the next five years.

From boosting the economy to reforming our education sector, and environmental policy to cost-of-living relief, each party vying for votes has detailed where they stand on the day-to-day and big ticket issues facing voters as well as their planned approach.

Many voters will have already decided which parties they will be supporting. According to recent research, however, as many as one in five eligible voters in Northern Ireland have yet to decide how they will cast their vote on Thursday. To assist in making this decision, we have listed below the links to the manifestos for each of the parties contesting the Assembly Election.

Whether it’s the establishment of an Investment Bank, a Green New Deal, fiscal and public service reforms, or ‘fixing’ the NHS, it is important to know what policies each party will be pursuing.

  • Sinn Féin – LINK.

  • Green Party – LINK.

  • People Before Profit – LINK.

Brown O’Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 2 May 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The final Belfast Telegraph-Lucid Talk opinion poll before the Assembly Election places Sinn Féin on course to become the largest party on 26%, followed by the DUP (20%), Alliance (14%), UUP (14%), and the SDLP (10%). An Irish News-University of Liverpool poll will be published on Tuesday.

  • UTV will host their Assembly Election leaders debate on Sunday. The BBC’s debate will take place on Tuesday.

  • This week saw the launch of the Sinn Féin, DUP, Alliance and SDLP Assembly Election manifestos as well as the DUP’s ‘Plan for the Economy’.

  • Planned changes to import rules for goods entering the UK from the EU have been deferred by the UK Government amid increased supply chain costs for businesses.

  • The Fiscal Commission will publish its final report on the case for increasing the Executive’s fiscal powers after the Assembly Election.

  • The UK Parliament will next sit on Tuesday 10 May for the State Opening of Parliament in which the Queen’s Speech will set out the government’s legislative agenda.

  • Round Two of bidding for the UK Government’s Levelling Up Fund will open on Tuesday 31 May, businesses, universities, community organisations, district councils, and Executive departments can apply.

  • The Northern Ireland Office is expected to introduce legislation in the next six months to end all Troubles-related prosecutions.

  • The High Court ruling into whether the Department for Infrastructure unlawfully granted planning permission for the redevelopment of Casement Park is expected before the end of May.

  • The next meeting of Belfast City Council will take place on Tuesday.

  • Manufacturing Month 2022 kicks off next week with a launch breakfast taking place at the Soloist, Belfast on Tuesday. The month will see a series of events, webinars, and the flagship Anchor High Summit on Thursday 12 May. To find out more: LINK.

Other Stories this week

  • DUP officers in South Down have resigned en masse in protest at the selection of Diane Forsythe as the party’s candidate in the Assembly Election.

  • Former senior Executive civil servant Andrew McCormick has criticised the UK Government for failing to take responsibility for the NI Protocol and its impacts.

  • The NI Chamber has appointed Stuart Anderson as Head of Public Affairs.

  • The number of eligible voters in Northern Ireland has increased by 119,000 since the 2017 Assembly Election according to the Electoral Office.

  • A legal challenge against the NI Protocol, led by TUV leader Jim Allister, has been referred to the UK Supreme Court.

  • UTV has disclosed an 11% decrease in pre-tax revenue recorded during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

  • Members of Northern Ireland’s largest teaching union have voted in favour of strike action to commence from Monday 9 May.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 3 May, Manufacturing Month 22 Launch Breakfast, The Soloist, Belfast

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 24 June, NI Chamber’s Annual Lunch

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

  • 29 – 30 September, Centre for Cross Border Studies’ Annual Conference

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast South

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast South

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • According to the 2011 Census, Belfast South is the constituency which is most balanced between people brought up in Catholic (44.0%) and Protestant (43.7%) community backgrounds, and has by far the highest proportion of population (nearly double) from other religions (2.8%).

  • Belfast South has the lowest proportion of population registered to vote in the constituency; at 63.1%, it’s the only constituency below 70% (the Northern Ireland average is 72.2%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP attracted the most first preference votes (20.8%) in the constituency in 2017. The vote share between the two DUP candidates was nearly perfect and the 83 vote gap in the first stage slowly reduced to just over 25 votes by the end of the ninth stage when Emma Little Pengelly was excluded and her transfers brought Christopher Stalford home.

  • SDLP fell below 20% of the vote for the first time at an Assembly election.

  • UUP made inroads with a 2.3 percentage point increase in their first preference vote, but 9.0% in 2017 is still only a third of their share back in 2003.

  • Sinn Féin achieved their best ever result in Belfast South with 17.7% of the vote in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Matthew O’Toole was co-opted to replace Claire Hanna following her election to Westminster in 2019.

  • Deirdre Hargey was co-opted to replace Máirtín Ó Muilleoir in January 2020.

  • Edwin Poots is the new DUP MLA following the death of Christopher Stalford.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • If you’re following the Belfast South count, stock up with snacks: the #awake4bailey hashtag was apt given the 3am declaration of the final seat.

  • Sinn Féin picked up just over a quota of first preference votes in 2017. Can they repeat that success in May and consolidate that rise in support?

  • Can the Greens break through the 10% vote share for the first time in Belfast South?

  • The DUP’s two candidates picked up one and a quarter quotas of first preference votes in 2017 which means that Edwin Poots should be elected over the quota in the first stage unless there has been a very sharp drop in DUP support.

  • Unionist candidates have polled around two quotas of first preferences in the last two Assembly elections. If that support is sustained, the UUP stand a chance of narrowly winning a seat.

COMMENTARY

Belfast South is often touted as the most politically diverse constituency in Northern Ireland. All five seats are held by different parties, and in some cases by very fine margins: the vote share of the four largest parties in the constituency ranged from 17.7% to 20.8% in 2017.

It has been home to many well-known political figures in Northern Ireland’s history. This mix of fine margins and big personalities makes it one of the constituencies that pundits and journalists pay particular attention to at election time.

The SDLP are running two first time candidates, Matthew O’Toole and Elsie Trainor. Incumbent O’Toole would be the favourite to hold the party’s sole seat in the constituency. While the SDLP will be hopeful of making some electoral progress following Claire Hanna’s landslide win at the 2019 General Election, taking two seats would be hard to achieve. 

Alliance are also running two candidates, both high profile figures. Incumbent MLA Paula Bradshaw is seeking a third term as an MLA. She is running alongside the current Lord Mayor of Belfast, Kate Nicholl who has received praise for her performance in the civic role she took up on 1 June 2021. It’s not impossible that Nicholl could beat Bradshaw in the polls if the party isn’t careful with its vote management strategy. Like the SDLP, Alliance would require quite a surge in their vote to achieve two seats. 

Political veteran Edwin Poots is running for the DUP for the first time in Belfast South, having switched from Lagan Valley (and lost out on his bid to succeed Jim Wells on the South Down ballot). The DAERA Minister is the only DUP candidate this time, and even with the swing away from his party predicted by opinion polls, he would be expected to hold this seat that he has inherited from the late Christopher Stalford.

Another minister running for the first time is Sinn Féin’s Deirdre Hargey. Nominated as Minister for Communities two days after joining the Assembly in January 2020, Hargey will be attempting to hold the seat first gained by the party in 2003. Sinn Féin scored a record result in 2017 and it’s worth keeping an eye on how much of Ó Muilleoir’s vote stays with Hargey.

There could be quite a fight for the fifth seat. A few percentage points growth or decline for any party could radically change the electoral mathematics in the final stages of the count.

The Green Party leader Clare Bailey is seeking a third term. Her party has enjoyed increased electoral success at local government level and has garnered some momentum in recent weeks with the success of some of its private member’s bills.

The UUP are targeting Belfast South to win back the seat they lost in 2016. Stephen McCarthy is running for the first time for the UUP in the constituency. If the Beattie Bounce is happening anywhere, it would need to be happening here. 

An initial 384 vote gap between Michael Henderson (UUP) and Clare Bailey (Green) widened in nearly every subsequent stage of the 2017 count. But if the eventual DUP winner’s surplus had been distributed – as it is likely to be in May with just one DUP candidate running – it could have placed Henderson within a hundred votes of Bailey.

A drop in unionism’s share of the vote will favour the Greens. But a surging Alliance could gain preferences at the Green’s expense. Which could bring the UUP across the line ahead of the Greens. It’ll be a long night.

PREDICTIONS

  • One DUP, One Sinn Féin, One SDLP, One Alliance, One Green.

  • But never rule out a surprise in Belfast South.