#GE24 Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Fermanagh & South Tyrone is geographically the largest of the eighteen Northern Ireland constituencies and it is the most westerly constituency in the United Kingdom. As a result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, there are changes at its eastern end, taking in Blackwatertown (from Newry & Armagh) along with the remainder of Ballysaggart, Killymeal, Moygashel and Mullaghmore. Ballygawley is now fully within Fermanagh & South Tyrone but no part of Loughgall remains within the constituency (now split between Mid Ulster and Newry & South Tyrone). Killyman is now fully within Mid Ulster. Overall the electorate has increased by around 1,700 voters. The new boundary is likely to marginally favour nationalism over unionism. However, in a marginal constituency like Fermanagh & South Tyrone, even a small change could tilt the electoral balance.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
The most marginal seat in Northern Ireland has an important place in republicanism and unionism. For the former, it was the seat won by Bobby Sands in the April 1981 by-election, beating the former UUP leader Harry West. Four months later, Sands’ election agent Owen Carron topped the poll in the by-election caused by Sands’ death. The UUP’s Ken Maginnis held the seat from 1983 until his retirement in 2001.
Other than a two year spell (2015-2017) with the UUP’s Tom Elliott as MP, Michelle Gildernew has held the seat since 2001 (winning with a majority of 53 votes). The 2010 result was even tighter, with a mere 4 vote majority over independent unionist candidate Rodney Connor.
Since 2010, only a single unionist candidate has contested Fermanagh & South Tyrone. The SDLP does not stand aside for Sinn Féin in this constituency. Alliance’s vote was up three and a half percentage points in this constituency in the 2019 General Election.
2019 RESULTS
Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) was re-elected with a vote share of 43.3% and a majority of 57 over the UUP’s Tom Elliott.
COMMENTARY
Running for Sinn Féin is first time candidate Pat Cullen, the former General Secretary of the Royal College of Nursing. She has a high profile due to industrial disputes in the health service with the Conservative government over the past number of years. She is favourite to retain Michelle Gildernew’s seat for the party.
After four outings at Westminster elections, Tom Elliott is not standing for the UUP. The party announced that their candidate would be Councillor Diana Armstrong, the daughter of former party leader, Harry West. Despite being upset that an independent unionist candidate had not been agreed, the TUV and DUP have decided not to stand candidates in Fermanagh & South Tyrone to unite the pro-union vote. This will be the fifth attempt in a row of a unity candidate attempting to win this seat.
Also running: Paul Blake (SDLP), Eddie Roofe (Alliance), Carl Duffy (Aontú) and Gerry Cuillen (Cross Community Labour Alternative).
PREDICTION
Sinn Féin hold